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Get Money: Race 6 Monaco (25/05) - Updated post race!

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Current time of writing: 12:07 (+10 AEST), just under 6 hours before Practice 1 session.

This weekend I believe the results will be more or less what is to be expected of the rest of the season: Mercedes 1/2 finish with Red Bull and possible Alonso fighting it out for third - minus the obvious unforeseen circumstances of collisions / mechanical issues of course.

Pre-Race Positions

My usual position for pre race runs would be to bet against Vettel and favour Ricciardo, though given last weeks race with Vettel showing that he's possible got a handle on his RB10 (finally), I think I will sit this one out.

FYI head-to-head D Ricciardo (1.95) vs S Vettel (1.76) @ 12:10 22/05

Might be worth it? Due to his strong performance last week, I guess Vettels a little overpriced as I still believe D Ricciardo is the superior racer (currently only).

Race Positions

  1. Double Podium finish: Mercedes @ 1.39 (50% stake of allocated pot)
  2. Top 6 finish: D Ricciardo @ 1.33 (25% stake)

25% of pot unallocated

UPDATE: Post Practice 1/2 @ 12:06PM 23/05

Practice 1 went as expected with Hamilton, Rosberg, Ricciardo leading the pack (Alonso, Vettel to follow). Conditions were good for practice one.

Practice 2 experienced rain, so most the teams did not run for most of the one hour session. Session finished with Alonso, Hamilton, Vettel (Ricciardo finishing 9th). 

Tip: Try to avoid opening positions on practice sessions, as the teams will TRY to achieve the top position, though not at the risk to their car, which is highly dependant on various conditions. These sessions are only really for testing & data accumulation. Qualifying & Race are the only sessions you should consider opening meaningful positions on.

Odds for my usual Ricciardo vs Vettel head-to-head has equalised to 1.85 x 1.85. This is probably due to Ricciardo managing to keep pace with Hamilton on P1. Again, further indicator that he has more potential against struggling Vettel.

UPDATE: Post Race @ 12:02PM 26/05

The race results ended up exactly as expected. The front rows of the grid were:

  1. Rosberg
  2. Hamilton
  3. Ricciardo
  4. Vettel

Rosberg led the entire race with Hamilton to follow closely the entire session. Ricciardo however, had a bad a bad start and got pushed to 5th place with Vettel and Raikkonen squeezing in. He was however, handed back third place early on in the race when Vettel retired due to engine problems and Raikkonen suffering from a tire puncture from debris left over from a crash. 

Most of the race for my open positions was pretty standard from there on out, until Hamilton got something in his eye from lap 60 and had vision problems. His pace slowed very dramatically which gave Ricciardo every chance to catch him and take second place, however Hamilton defended very well considering his vision problems and held second place. 

My positions being double podium for Mercedes and Ricciardo top 6 still wouldn't have been effected if Ricciardo did manage to snatch second place from Hamilton, as they still would have been successful. It was however, unnerving as the increased pressure and challenge between the two could have caused an accident, taking one or even BOTH of them out with a DNF. That would have voided both my open positions. 

Luckily they are both very skilled drivers and the race finished exactly as I predicted.

Hindsight: should have taken the head-to-head bet of Ricciardo vs Vettel haha. Vettel's bad luck this season is almost dumbfounding. Would have been more of a speculative / pleasure bet than anything else...

Bet 1: Double Podium for Mercedes (Race) 26% profit (WIN)

Bet 2: D. Ricciardo Top 6 Finish (Race) 11% profit (WIN)

OUTCOME 2/2 with a 37% pot increase